Namely, the Delphi method is one of the efficient tools in order to receive the opinions of experts in the decision-making process in an organization. It is used in cases when the decision has to be made collectively depending on the opinions of several professionals who know the problem in question.
Do your organization wants to improve how it conducts research and makes decisions? Then learning about the Delphi method could be beneficial.
Here we will explain what the Delphi method is. We will also outline its advantages and disadvantages. You can also learn how to carry out a successful Delphi study, and share real-world examples.
Introduction to Delphi Technique
The Delphi method is a way to make forecasts and communicate effectively. It is done by using several rounds of questionnaires sent to a group of experts. The experts receive a summary of the group's responses after each round.
They will find answers that have common themes and ideas. They can also share these with the other experts. After the experts review what their peers have said, they can adjust their own answers. This can be done based on the group's feedback.
The main goal of the Delphi method is to help these experts come to a shared agreement and reach an agreement. Many industries and organizations use this method for different things. These things include business forecasting or making important decisions like predicting industry trends or developing financial strategies.
It helps them refine their answers based on what others have said.
This method combines the insights of experts with the collective knowledge of the group. This is making it a powerful tool for decision-making.
Quick Historical Overview of Delphi Technique
The Delphi method was created during the Cold War and is named after the Ancient Greek Oracle of Delphi. It was developed by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey from the Rand Corporation after General Henry Arnold asked for a report on future technologies that could help the military.
Initially, the project team tried traditional forecasting methods and data analysis techniques, but they quickly realized these approaches didn’t work well in areas without established scientific theories. The Delphi method proved to be effective in overcoming these challenges. By gathering opinions from experts, they were able to make accurate predictions about potential enemy attacks.
In 2015, the BMJ published a detailed guide on how to use the Delphi method in research. In 2021, a study by Beiderbeck and others offered specific methods for using Delphi surveys in psychology.
Pros of Delphi Technique
Here are some benefits of using the Delphi method:
Learning from experts
The Delphi method is an excellent way to resolve discussions or tackle complex issues within your team. Experts can reach a logical agreement that can be helpful for your organization.
Getting honest feedback
Because the responses are anonymous, the experts can share their true opinions without fear of judgment or consequences. This means you can trust that the feedback you receive is genuine.
Achieving strong agreement
When experts hear different perspectives and reasoning on various topics, they may be more likely to change their minds. This helps the group come to a decision that more people support, giving you greater confidence in moving forward with that decision.
Cons of Delphi Technique
Here are some drawbacks of using the Delphi method:
Lack of live discussion
While participants are giving feedback, they aren’t having real-time conversations or sharing their thoughts freely since most of their input is collected through anonymous questionnaires. This can limit open discussions among professionals.
Slow response times
If you need to make a decision or solve a problem quickly, there might be better methods to consider. One disadvantage of the Delphi method is that it normally uses a lot of time especially because it entails applying questionnaires in different rounds. This can lead to longer days and less opportunity for discussion.
Limited value of responses
There is a chance that the feedback you receive may not be very helpful. This can happen if the participants struggle to reach a consensus.
Applications of the Delphi Method
Healthcare and Medicine
The Delphi method is particularly applied in the healthcare industry to forecast the future developments in medicine. These professionals collaborate to anticipate new specifications such as diagnostic devices and treatment techniques before they are used by the healthcare industry.
Education
In education, the Delphi method can be utilized in developing curricula, evaluating the future needs. In education, this method is quite useful in developing curriculum. This makes forecasts and reflecting on policies. Experts understand what the graduates after the program should be able to meet and this results in a plan having a wider backing.
Business and Management
In business the Delphi method is applied in strategy development. It is also used for anticipating trends or emphases within the market area and observing critical success factors. Companies can benefit from consulting industry experts about its markets. It can help in terms of possible future changes on the industry, opportunities to watch out for as well as risks that may possibly arise in the future. For instance, marketing personnel apply this technique to predict buyers’ behaviour and demand for goods.
Environmental Studies
Environmentalists employ the Delphi method to assess risk, forecast impacts of climate change and design strategies of sustainability. Forecasters anticipate future environment risks and their consequences.
Public Policy
The Delphi method is also important in shaping public policy. Policymakers work with experts to create detailed policy plans that address complicated issues like healthcare reform and economic inequality.
How to Conduct a Study with the Delphi Method?
Here are the steps you need to follow to conduct a study using Delphi Technique:
1. Define The Purpose of Your Study
Firstly, consider what goals you want to accomplish before you begin your study. This will assist you into knowing how much time the study will require and the number of rounds of questions you will set.
List down the study’s objectives and the research question/ Research issue you wish to address and explain to your participants.
2. Prepare materials for participants
Understanding the study's purpose will help you create a clear structure.
After this, determine the number of rounds you want and set a deadline on the particular round or even. Concerning documents are written to convey the procedure and give the panelists insight into the goal and objectives of the study along with their roles and responsibilities.
Some materials you might prepare include:
Ethical guidelines
Study goals
Instructions on how to participate
Schedule and timeline
Consent forms
3. Selecting Participants
After getting your plan on the right track, here comes the step on selecting the panelist for the study. A set of specifications should be developed that defines the characteristics and experience of the participants. Ensure that the panelists are well informed in areas relevant to your study’s area of interest.
The number of panelists you include should be limited by the complexity of the topic and time you have set for the study. Ideally, the number of panelists should normally range between 10 to 50 individuals.
4. Creating Your Questionnaires
You will send out questionnaires before each round of the study. Each round will have its own set of questions:
Round 1
The first round introduces the main topic and kicks off the conversation. Provide basic information for panelists to review and ask for their honest feedback. The facilitator will collect their answers.
Round 2
In this round, the facilitator will analyze the answers to find common themes. They will share these insights with the panelists, who will see the responses anonymously. Panelists can then adjust their original answers based on what they read and submit these updates.
Round 3
After everyone submits their revised answers, the facilitator will look for similarities again. They will create new questions based on the previous answers for the panelists to review. You can choose to end the study here or keep refining the answers until the group reaches a general agreement.
5. Analyze Feedback and Results
After the panelists are done, meet with your team to review the results and decide whether to accept the panelists' conclusions. You may also want the facilitator to double-check the results to ensure everything is accurate.
Once everything is confirmed, you can take action by sharing your findings with other team members or decision-makers. This could involve creating a consensus report, writing an industry article, or launching a new project based on the results.
Final Thoughts
The Delphi method involves sending several rounds of questionnaires to a group of experts to reach a shared opinion or agreement. Participants adjust their responses based on the feedback from others in the group. This method benefits from keeping participants anonymous and allowing them to rethink their answers. However, it can be time-consuming and sometimes less effective than live discussions or focus groups.
